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Strategy Analytics: Huawei Leads in 2023 5G Global Market RAN Forecast

April 16, 2019

New report from Strategy Analytics ’ Service Provider Group titled “Comparison and 2023 5G Global Market Potential for leading 5G RAN Vendors – Ericsson, Huawei and Nokia” predicts Huawei will have a two point lead in terms of share of 5G subscribers served by its 5G Radio Access Network (RAN) equipment in 2023 as the 5G market takes off. Huawei benefits from the vast scale of the early 5G market in China and its long term steady investment in R&D. Other leading 5G RAN vendors - Ericsson and Nokia - will be close rivals for Huawei as the global market volume drives down cost. Simultaneously Samsung and ZTE are expected to expand their global presence alongside new emerging OpenRAN vendors as competition heats up.

As the chart shows despite being excluded from the US market Huawei is expected to have about two percentage points more share of global 5G subscribers covered by its RAN equipment, than its traditional rivals.

Guang Yang, Director at Strategy Analytics, explains, “R&D investment backed by market scale is the most crucial factor for the long term competitiveness of 5G infrastructure vendors. Huawei has maintained steady growth in its 5G R&D investment, which bodes well for long term advances in energy efficient, cost effective 5G technology.”

Phil Kendall, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, adds “By 2023 5G looks to be a very competitive global market as this premium technology finally achieves economies of scale that will drive down the costs per Gigabyte of throughput to make 5G an affordable technology on a global basis. The neck and neck battle between Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia for share of 2023’s 5G radio access should lower costs for all segments of mobile, IoT and fixed 5G applications, even as smaller new vendors find specific niches below these three.”

Key findings of the report:

• Strategy Analytics estimates that Huawei, Ericsson and Nokia will each serve between 25% and 22% of global 5G subscribers on their RAN equipment.

• The ‘Others’ - Samsung and ZTE as well several new emerging OpenRAN players will share almost 30% of global 5G subscribers.

• Strategy Analytics anticipates by 2023 5G radio access will become a very competitive market where economies of scale ensure that costs per Gigabyte of throughput continue to fall to make 5G an affordable enterprise and consumer technology on a global basis.

• 5G would be the first new wireless generation where China is an early adopter. The huge scale of China’s early market should drive 5G costs down even more rapidly than in previous generations.

• Both Chinese and non-Chinese vendors who are able to compete effectively in the Chinese market are likely to further improve their market position globally. China’s 5G market is worth monitoring closely.

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