The growth rate of
real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic
activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. The GDPNow
forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to
its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the
one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is
best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available
economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective
adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the
mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture
the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP
source data and relevant economic reports that have already been
released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic
reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Latest
estimate: 10.0 percent — March 1, 2021
The GDPNow model
estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the
first quarter of 2021 is 10.0 percent on March 1, up from 8.8 percent on
February 26. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending
report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real
personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross
private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government
spending growth increased from 7.7 percent, 17.7 percent, and 6.9
percent, respectively, to 8.8 percent, 18.7 percent, and 9.1 percent,
respectively.