On the back of
these partnerships, Uber Freight is unveiling a road map for
the practical deployment of this vision, as well as detailed
research exploring the impact autonomous trucks will have on
truck driver jobs, operating costs, and the movement of
goods overall.
Among the key
findings of the research are:
The
hub-to-hub model represents a practical starting point for
the accelerated deployment of autonomous trucks
For
the foreseeable future, most autonomous trucks will
operate under a hub-to-hub model, where human
drivers handle the trip ends, which involve complex
urban streets, and autonomous trucks will service
the middle on highways.
Using a nationwide freight model, we find that the
hub-to-hub model presents a sizable opportunity,
with an immediate addressable market of 25 billion
miles of long-distance dry van freight on the
interstate system.
The
hub-to-hub model is also economically feasible, especially
for long hauls
Feasibility improves with longer hauls, where the
fraction of cost associated with the first and last
miles is smaller.
By
analyzing historical carrier pricing data, we find
that this model is feasible to all stakeholders on
80% of lanes if AV carriers can achieve a
middle-mile cost of $1 per mile, and on 40% of lanes
with a middle-mile cost of $2 per mile.1
Cost of the first and last mile
(in gray) and the break-even revenue (in green) using the
hub-to-hub model. We assume a $76 reduction in the cost of
local hauls because of time savings resulting from
drop-and-hook operations.
Autonomous trucks within a hybrid network will fill trucking
employment gaps, rather than replace human drivers. They
will provide capacity where it is needed most: in
long-distance trucking
Using a
nationwide model of interstate freight movements, we
estimate that 180,000 drivers will be needed to cover 18
billion miles of dry van freight by 2050.
Autonomous trucks on the long-haul middle mile would
enable humans to shift to local hauls, boosting demand
for skilled drivers in the local sector. Drivers will
have more control over their work and be able to stay
closer to home.
Deployment will expand incrementally along strategic
corridors in the US, starting with states where weather
and regulations are favorable.
On the back of
these partnerships, Uber Freight is unveiling a road map for
the practical deployment of this vision, as well as detailed
research exploring the impact autonomous trucks will have on
truck driver jobs, operating costs, and the movement of
goods overall.
